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Academics See No Clear Exit for Johnson or Replacement PM_我的网站

一 |     British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is fighting for his political life but his opponents have few options for replacing him — so say two senior academics.,Calls for Johnson to go have reached fever pitch since Chris Pincher, the Conservative MP he appointed as deputy chief whip in February, was sacked for drunkenly groping two men at a posh private members' club in London.,This week it emerged that Johnson had been informed of earlier sexual assault claims against Pincher before he promoted him — leaving cabinet colleagues were embarrassed at having to defend the ever-changing official line.,Laura McAllister, professor of public policy at the Wales Governance Centre, told Sputnik nobody should take Johnson's political demise for granted.,"He survived so much in a way that few other politicians have ever managed to, particularly those in senior public office and prime minister," McAllister says. "He operates by a completely different set of rules and principles and ethics, which we would assume would be his undoing, but actually in reality he seems to have been able to ride the storm".,The academic points to Johnson's survival of the scandals around his advisor Dominic Cummings, 'Partygate', his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic before the Pincher affair. But she conceded that the spate of ministerial resignations led by Sajid Javid as health secretary and Rishi Sunak as chancellor of the exchequer were "hugely significant.","Two Cabinet members who sat in Cabinet yesterday morning had resigned without warning by the evening," the professor stresses "I think it's also fair to say that both of those individuals are thinking about their own potential bids to stand as the next leader of the Conservative Party and therefore timing is very much predicated on that.",McAllister says things have changed since the days of Margaret Thatcher, who resigned in 1990 after failing to win a leadership challenge by an overwhelming margin.,"[T]here was a much stronger Cabinet code, a ministerial code that was upheld broadly, or if it wasn't upheld, then there were consequences," she says "That's not the case now, and it seems very likely that Johnson will not resign of his own accord.","He still has a base of support, of course, even though that’s dwindling away now," she adds.,The academic also doubts that a general election would break the political deadlock.,"Whilst Labour are a few percentage points ahead, they clearly aren’t making sufficient headway to be confident of winning a majority," McAllister says. "The best they could hope for in the current polling would be a minority government and potentially having to seek coalition partners".,Those could include the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP), who would demand a repeat of the 2014 independence referendum as the price of their support. Ironically, independence for Scotland and its 59 parliamentary seats would shore up the Conservative majority in Westminster and make Labour nigh on unelectable.,"[Labour leader] Keir Starmer has already ruled out any deals with the SNP for obvious constitutional reasons, and therefore with Plaid Cymru in Wales," she points out, "So it seems unlikely that that route to power is open".,McAllister believes a new Tory leader would at least enjoy a "honeymoon period" bounce in the polls.,"And who knows, were Johnson to be defenestrated, it might be that a new leader might choose to capitalize on the honeymoon period and call an earlier election," she speculates.,Beleaguered BoJo Battles With Opposition at Weekly PM's Questions12:52 GMT,No 'Coup', But Then Who?,Mark Garnett, a politics professor at Lancaster University and author of the books "The British Prime Minister in an Age of Upheaval" and "From Anger to Apathy: The British Experience" thinks Johnson has no hope of survival. But he does not see how the party can push the PM out if he refuses to jump.,He says Javid and Sunak's resignations are "serious blows" to Johnson, but they are only "symptoms of a more general crisis of leadership".,"Johnson has been involved in too many incidents which raise questions about his personal integrity," Garnett says, with ministers told to defend the PM against allegations that turned out to be true. "In effect, they have been asked to lie in public on his behalf. Their patience has finally snapped.",But the professor does not see the near simultaneous resignations as a "coup", stressing: "The most surprising thing is that ministers have tolerated Johnson for so long".,While Sunak was seen as the favorite to succeed Johnson just six months ago "he is being held at least partly responsible for the country's economic problems and his chances of becoming prime minister are now very remote," Garnett says. "Sajid Javid's chances are greater, but Conservative members (who make the final decision) seem more attracted to the Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, who has not resigned.",The academic believes MPs are worried that Johnson is now an "electoral liability" who could cost them their seats at the next general election. "The party has just lost two by-elections in crucial seats, and the main reason given by those who voted against them was Boris Johnson's leadership," he stresses.,But the problem of how to remove Johnson from office if he will not quit remains.,"Currently the party's rules make it impossible to hold a vote of confidence for another year," Garnett points out. "It is very likely that those rules will be changed within the next ten days". But he believes if a vote could be held now, "Johnson would certainly lose and be forced to resign".。    THE WORLD AIDS DAY     世界艾滋病日          “凝聚社会力量，合力共抗艾滋”          AIDS DAY     世界艾滋病日          2023年12月1日是第36个“世界艾滋病日”，今年我国“世界艾滋病日”的宣传主题为“凝聚社会力量，合力共抗艾滋”。                   一提起艾滋病，几乎所有人都把它与绝症、死亡划上等号，仿佛连这个话题都沾着病毒，让人闻“艾”色变，避之不及。在“世界艾滋病日”到来之际，我们一起正确防艾、不恐艾！这10个关于艾滋病的问答，赶紧get一下！          什么是艾滋病？          艾滋病也称为获得性免疫缺陷综合征（AIDS），是一种危害很大的传染病，由感染艾滋病毒（HIV）引起。

二 |          感染HIV后就成为HIV感染者。如果未能及时得到治疗，感染者体内的HIV会通过攻击CD4+T淋巴细胞，破坏人体的免疫系统，最终发展成为艾滋病，危及患者生命。         2023.12.1 · TIME          艾滋病毒如何传播？          艾滋病毒主要通过以下三种方式传播：          1、性传播：如果与HIV感染者发生无保护的性行为，比如未使用避孕套或未正确使用避孕套，那么就有可能感染HIV。         2、血液传播：输入含有HIV的血液或血制品、共用注射器吸毒、使用未经严格消毒的手术、注射、针灸、拔牙、美容等侵入人体的医疗器械可以引起传播。         3、母婴传播：感染了艾滋病毒的妇女可在怀孕、分娩或母乳喂养时将病毒传染给孩子。         哪些接触不会导致艾滋病毒传播？          日常生活中的一些普通社交接触不会感染艾滋病毒，如握手、拥抱、礼节性亲吻、共同进餐、共用餐具、共用洗手池、马桶、毛巾、以及到公共浴池洗澡等，这些行为都是安全的。

三 |          除此之外，咳嗽、打喷嚏等也不会导致HIV的传播。         哪些是感染艾滋病毒高危行为？          以下是一些容易感染HIV的高危行为：          ·与陌生人进行无保护措施的性行为          ·与他人共用针头或注射器静脉注射毒品          ·不安全、不规范医疗侵入操作          ·到不正规的纹身店纹身          如何预防艾滋病？          ·避免进行没有保护的性接触，正确的使用避孕套；          ·拒绝毒品并且坚决不与他人共用针具；          ·避免不正规的注射和输血；          ·如果要拔牙、纹身、打耳洞，一定要去消毒严格正规机构；          ·不与他人共用牙刷以及剃须刀等物品；          ·对青少年进行正确性教育；          如何预防艾滋病的母婴传播？          孕妇应该在孕早期接受HIV检测，如果感染了HIV，需要在医生指导下采取适当的抗病毒治疗措施。HIV越早被诊断和治疗，HIV药物就越能有效地防止病毒传染给宝宝。同时，在分娩过程中和产后也要采取必要的防护措施，避免将病毒传给婴儿。         如果可能接触了艾滋病怎么办？          如果发生了高危暴露，可以采取暴露后预防，尽快去相关门诊医院，评估是否需要服用阻断药。

四 | 抗逆转录病毒药物通常应在接触病毒后的72小时内（越早越好）开始服用，并持续服用药物28天。         什么是艾滋病？          不能仅凭外表来判断一个人是否感染了艾滋病毒，唯一确定的方法是进行HIV检测。         艾滋病潜伏期很长，患者从感染病毒到出现艾滋病相关症状，通常需要经过数年的时间。

五 | 在这个阶段，感染者的外表与健康人看起来一样，可以没有任何症状地生活和工作多年，但他们仍然具有传染性。         得了艾滋病，还可以结婚生子吗？          经过规范的抗病毒治疗后，病毒载量抑制成功的患者，在专业医生指导下，可以结婚生子。

六 |          艾滋病可以治愈吗？          目前在全世界范围内仍缺乏根治HIV感染和艾滋病的有效药物。现阶段的治疗目标是：最大限度和持久的降低病毒载量；获得免疫功能重建和维持免疫功能；提高生活质量；降低HIV相关疾病的发病率和死亡率。

七 |          参考文献：          [1]https://www.who.int/zh/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/hiv-aids          [2]https://www.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/azb/jszl_2219/202211/t20221111_262074.html。

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