致命魔术

普京不久将访问北京，与中国领导人习近平会面，届时几乎不会出现对中俄无上限伙伴关系持怀疑态度的人所说的分歧。    TACOMA, Wash. -- No one will face criminal charges following a two-car crash in Tacoma, Washington, that killed six Arizona residents in July, according to Pierce County prosecutors.A three-month Washington State Patrol investigation into the July 15 crash at the intersection of state Route 509 and Alexander Avenue determined the Arizona residents' vehicle ran a red light when the crash occurred, the Tacoma News Tribune reported Thursday.The crash happened about 11 a.m., when a Kia Forte sedan holding seven people drove through the intersection and was hit by an eastbound driver in a BMW SUV, according to charging decision documents. The Kia hit a curb, rolled 70 feet (21 meters) and caught fire. Five of the Kia’s occupants were declared dead at the scene, and a sixth died later at St. Joseph Medical Center. A seventh occupant — a Phoenix man — survived with serious injuries but had no memory of the crash. The group had traveled to Tacoma to attend an Amway convention, family members told the News Tribune.Those who died were Felix Y Begay, 25, of Kayenta, Arizona; Cerra Corner, 19, of Phoenix; Lisa Esparza, 19, of Phoenix; Javan Runnels, 22, of Phoenix; Calsie Sockyma, 25, of Tuba City, Arizona and Erick Tsosie, 25, of Kayenta, Arizona.Five of the victims — Corner, Begay, Runnels, Sockyma and Tsosie — were in the backseat of the Kia not wearing seatbelts. Esparza was driving, and the Phoenix man who survived was in the front passenger’s seat. The driver and passenger in the BMW — a 42-year-old Tacoma man and his 40-year-old wife — were uninjured.There was insufficient evidence to prove the BMW driver acted with disregard for the safety of others, according to Deputy Prosecuting Attorney Elizabeth Dasse. The incident was not vehicular homicide or vehicular assault, she said.。然而，普京的优先事项很可能会与东道国的优先事项发生冲突，克莱蒙特麦肯纳学院政府学教授裴敏欣为彭博社撰文指出。

这位教授认为，普京现在别无选择，只能从短期考虑，即乌克兰的失败将对他的统治构成生存威胁。因此，他完全有理由迫使中国为他的战争提供更多实质性的军事支持。

裴敏欣指出：”值得注意的是，俄罗斯决定在中国高官最近对法国进行国事访问之际宣布进行挑衅性核演习。这让北京感到尴尬，而北京正面临着来自欧洲的越来越大的压力，迫使其利用自己的影响力结束战争。

B | 普京此举发出了一个并不含蓄的信息：中国在战争问题上保持中立已不再可行。”

这位教授认为，中国可能不会介意给予普京更多支持，但中国在短期内面临严重制约，需要争取时间。自2023年3月与普京的上一次会晤以来，北京的处境恶化，这主要是由于中国经济下滑以及与西方的关系持续紧张。

C |

裴敏欣称：”这两个因素是相互关联的。尽管在技术和贸易方面出现了一些初步分离，但与普京干预之前的俄罗斯经济相比，中国经济与美国和欧洲的交织程度仍然要深得多。2023年，中国对美国的商品出口总额为4270亿美元，对欧盟的商品出口总额约为5500亿美元。”

在他看来，中国政府在关键领域实现自给自足的战略可能会减少对西方市场的过度依赖，但至少在未来几年，中国将不得不依靠出口来克服经济困难。

“由于中国无法断绝与西方的经济联系，北京必须谨慎对待向普京提供多少援助及何种援助。美国显然了解中国的脆弱性。”这位教授说。

“两位领导人可能会在会议上宣布一系列新的协议，以防止普京空手而归（最重要的是他们能否就”西伯利亚电力2号”天然气管道签署协议）。

D | 但北京不太可能向普京提供那种越过西方红线的军事支持。”这位教授认为。

裴敏欣称：”未来两三年，中俄之间的主要紧张关系仍将存在，如果普京再次在战场上失利，这种紧张关系可能会变得更加难以控制。”